Saiu a Modelagem Estatística do Imperial College London para os Cenários do COVID-19 no Brasil

Antes, uma introdução. No começo da pandemia o governo do Reino Unido havia decidido apostar em uma estratégia de “imunidade de massa”, que consistia em não tomar medidas restritivas; em vez de parar o país, deixariam que o vírus infectasse a população de modo que rapidamente as pessoas pudessem ficar imunizadas.

Porém, o governo do Reino Unido desistiu dessa ideia quando uma equipe de especialistas epidemiológicos do Imperial College of London apresentou uma previsão de como se desenrolaria a disseminação do COVID-19 em diferentes cenários de contenção para o Reino Unido e para os Estados Unidos. Para elaborar essa previsão, utilizaram dados de contágio, estatísticas de hospitalização e óbitos vistos em outros países, estudaram como o vírus se dissemina em diferentes ambientes etc..

Como um breve resumo: se circular livremente, o vírus tem a capacidade de infectar cerca de 80% da população geral em um período muito curto. Das pessoas infectadas, cerca de 20% precisam de hospitalização, 5% dos casos são críticos e precisam de UTI e suporte respiratório, e cerca de metade dos casos críticos vêm a óbito.

No entanto, o súbito aumento de casos ultrapassa a capacidade do sistema de saúde, gerando colapso, e disso resulta um número muito maior de mortes — de covid-19, assim como de outras causas — simplesmente porque não há hospital para tratar todas as pessoas que precisam.

Segundo a previsão, se não houver restrições nos contatos, no mundo inteiro seriam 7 bilhões de pessoas infectadas com covid-19 e 40 milhões de mortes neste ano.

Os números previstos por esses estudos fizeram com que governos desistissem das posturas mais relaxadas e tomassem as medidas mais restritivas para evitar o colapso do sistema de saúde e um número muito maior de mortes.

Ontem, no dia 26/03/2020, o Imperial College of London soltou números previstos para os desfechos da pandemia em todos os países, nos cenários sem intervenção, com mitigação, e com supressão.

Mitigação envolve proteger os idosos (reduzir 60% dos contatos) e restringir apenas 40% dos contatos do restante da população.

Supressão envolve testar e isolar os casos positivos, e estabelecer distanciamento social para toda a população.

Supressão precoce – implementada em uma fase em que há 0,2 mortes por 100.000 habitantes por semana e mantida

Supressão tardia – implementada quando há 1,6 mortes por 100.000 habitantes por semana e mantida.

No Brasil os cenários previstos são os seguintes:

Cenário 1- Sem medidas de mitigação:

- População total: 212.559.409

- População infectada: 187.799.806

- Mortes: 1.152.283

- Indivíduos necessitando hospitalização: 6.206.514

- Indivíduos necessitando UTI: 1.527.536

Cenário 2 - Com distanciamento social de toda a população:

- População infectada: 122.025.818

- Mortes: 627.047

- Indivíduos necessitando hospitalização: 3.496.359

- Indivíduos necessitando UTI: 831.381

Cenário 3 - Com distanciamento social E REFORÇO do distanciamento dos idosos:

- População infectada: 120.836.850

- Mortes: 529.779

- Indivíduos necessitando hospitalização: 3.222.096

- Indivíduos necessitando UTI: 702.497

Cenário 4 – Com supressão tardia

- População infectada: 49.599.016

- Mortes: 206.087

- Indivíduos necessitando hospitalização: 1.182.457

- Indivíduos necessitando UTI: 460.361

- Demanda por hospitalização no pico da pandemia: 460.361

- Demanda por leitos de UTI no pico da pandemia: 97.044

Cenário 5 – Com supressão precoce

- População infectada: 11.457.197

- Mortes: 44.212

- Indivíduos necessitando hospitalização: 250.182

- Indivíduos necessitando UTI: 57.423

- Demanda por hospitalização no pico da pandemia: 72.398

- Demanda por leitos de UTI no pico da pandemia: 15.432

Faço algumas observações:

Os próprios autores do estudo comentam que modelaram essas curvas com base nos padrões de dispersão dos países ricos e que nos países pobres os resultados da pandemia podem ser piores do que o previsto. Esses números previstos não levam em conta a existência de favelas, comunidades sem abastecimento de água e/ou saneamento, entre outros complicadores que temos no Brasil.

É preciso comentar que os números reais da pandemia no Brasil, seus casos e óbitos, estarão amplamente subnotificados devido à falta de testes e demora nos resultados. As estatísticas oficiais publicadas pelo Ministério da Saúde mostrarão apenas a ponta do iceberg.

Mesmo nos melhores cenários, lentificando a transmissão e aumentando os recursos do sistema de saúde, deve faltar UTI e respirador para parte dos doentes.

Em resumo, a diferença entre ficarmos todos em casa (supressão) ou adotar uma estratégia mais branda de mitigação e proteção apenas dos grupos de risco pode ser da ordem de MEIO MILHÃO de vidas.

Os diversos relatórios estão disponíveis no site do Imperial College of London: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0GeexFNu6ezOVclPBVW5x3Z3yOn5N1X6siDO5P7ezUOm_UwOUu31RBoAY

Link para o trabalho “The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression”: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf

As tabelas com os números oferecidos constam no apêndice: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-unmitigated-mitigated-suppression-scenarios.xlsx

Robin S - Show Me Love (Official Music Video) [1993]

Via Daily Dharma: Forgive Yourself for Failing

Falling down is what we humans do. If we can acknowledge that fact, judgment softens and we allow the world to be as it is, forgiving ourselves and others for our humanity.

—Lin Jensen, “An Ear to the Ground”

Via Insight Meditation Sangha

Firm confidence in the Buddha;

Firm confidence in the Dharma;

Firm confidence in the Community;

Being accomplished in noble virtue.

~ Bhikku Anālayo ~

May you be healthy, happy, safe and protected, and may we all find peace and liberation in the Buddha, Dharma, Sangha, and in noble virtue.

Via Daily Dharma: Getting Along with People Who Bother You

A Buddhist practices nonattachment to views. If we human beings are going to stick around on this earth, we need to learn to get along not just with the people who share our views, but also, and more to the point, with the people who get our goat. And remember—we get their goat, too.

—Susan Moon, “Ten Practices to Change the World”

Via Ram Dass - Love Serve Remember Foundation / Words of Wisdom - March 26, 2020 💌

"The universe is made up of experiences that are designed to burn out our reactivity, which is our attachment, our clinging, to pain, to pleasure, to fear, to all of it. And as long as there are places where we’re vulnerable, the universe will find ways to confront us with them. That’s the way the dance is designed..."

- Ram Dass -

Via Daily Dharma: How to Respond to Anger

If you are angry and you meditate to get rid of your anger, you will only frustrate yourself. Meditate because you are angry, not to eliminate it.

—Mark Epstein, “I’ve Been Meditating for Ten Years, and I’m Still Angry. What’s the Matter with Me?”

One Day More - A Quarantined #BroadwayLipSync

Via the Gay Buddhist Fellowship in San Franciso

“The more closely we contemplate our bodies and minds and the world we live in, the more profoundly we become aware of the fragility and instability. When a crisis like this pandemic lays bare the unreliable and uncertain nature of the world, we are unsurprised. We know that what is happening right now is not a deviation from the norm. It is merely that the covers have been dragged away from truths that most people spend their lives trying to ignore. With a daily grounding in the way things are, we can remain free from panic, anxiety, and depression. We can turn our minds to compassion.

Faced with a suffering of this depth and range, we form the heartfelt wish that all people, young and old, in all countries of the world be free from infection. If they have contracted the virus, may they recover. If they do not recover may they be able to endure their pain with patience and acceptance; may they have a refuge in their heart to turn to; and in their final days may they be surrounded by love and kindness.”

~Ajahn Jayasaro

Via Daily Dharma: Diluting Your Ego

Each deepening of refuge is a lessening of ego.

—Dharmavidya David Brazier, “It Needs Saying”

Via One Day More!

Via Daily Dharma: You Are Enough

The ground of renunciation is realizing that we already have exactly what we need, that what we have already is good.

—Pema Chödrön, “Renunciation”

Via Daily Dharma: Reconnect with Interconnection

There is a truth to our lived experience, to our births, to our deaths, to our existence in separate bodies. But that doesn't deny that we are interconnected, that we all originated from the same point.

—Sebene Selassie, “Mindfulness of the Four Elements: Reconnecting with the World”

Via Ram Dass - Love Serve Remember Foundation / Words of Wisdom - March 22, 2020 💌

"One of the big traps we have in the West is our intelligence because we want to know that we know. Freedom allows you to be wise, but you cannot know wisdom. You must be wisdom. When my guru wanted to put me down, he called me ‘clever.’ When he wanted to reward me, he would call me ‘simple.’ The intellect is a beautiful servant, but a terrible master. Intellect is the power tool of our separateness. The intuitive, compassionate heart is the doorway to our unity. "

- Ram Dass -

Via White Crane Insitute: GAVIN ARTHUR

Exploring Gay Wisdom & Culture since 1989
This Day in Gay History
March 21 Born Gavin Arthur 1901 - GAVIN ARTHUR, American writer, grandson of President Chester A. Arthur (d: 1972); Grandson and namesake of U.S. President Chester Alan Arthur, he was Alan Watts' father-in-law. An adventurous soul, he worked his way around the world as a merchant seaman. He has been described as "an Ivy League dropout, an Irish Republican Army activist, an experimental-film actor, a commune leader, a gold prospector, a teacher at San Quentin, and a bisexual sexologist/astrologer. An early Gay Rights activist and a practical prototype for the hippies." In 1962, Arthur published The Circle of Sex, a book that analyzed human sexuality through the lens of astrology. Rather than the linear scale developed by Alfred Kinsey, Arthur envisioned sexuality as a wheel with twelve orientations. The twelve types corresponded to the zodiac and Arthur illustrated each with an historical archetype (e.g., Don Juan, Sappho, Lady C).  He appears in James Broughton's film The Bed as the man receiving last rites from Alan Watts Arthur, bisexual himself, was said to have been intimate with Edward Carpenter and Neal Cassady. Arthur was also a friend to many of the beat generation, including Allen Ginsberg and Alan Watts, and was active in the early Gay Liberation movement movement. Arthur married for the third time in 1965 to Ellen Jansen. He wrote an enlarged edition of The Circle of Sex the following year. He used astrology to determine the date to hold the Human Be-in in 1967. In 1968, he debated fellow astrologer Dane Rudhyar on the topic of the Age of Aquarius. In 1972, Arthur died in San Francisco. Having no children himself, he was the last living descendant of his grandfather, President Chester A. Arthur. His papers, including many family papers, were donated to the Library of Congress.

Via Daily Dharma: Why We Really Practice

We need to lessen our attachment to the cushion and remember meditation’s true purpose: to transform our minds. We can do that anywhere.

—Mindy Newman, “Ask a Teacher”

Via Daily Dharma: Others Have Felt What You’re Feeling

Whatever it is that you’re feeling, recognize it. In that instant of separation and acknowledgment, … use your imagination to recognize that there are other people on the planet at this very moment feeling just like you feel. You are no longer alone.

—Lama Kathy Wesley, “Your Mistakes Are Progress”

Via White Crane Institute / RICHARD FRANCIS BURTON

Exploring Gay Wisdom & Culture since 1989
This Day in Gay History
March 19 Born Richard Francis Burton 1821 - RICHARD FRANCIS BURTON, legendary British explorer, diplomat and author was born (d. 1890); an English explorer, translator, writer, soldier, orientalist, ethnologist, linguist, poet, hypnotist, fencer and diplomat. If we left anything out it’s hard to imagine what it might be. Burton was "the most interesting man alive" before there was such a thing. He was known for his far-flung and exotic travels and explorations within Asia and Africa as well as his extraordinary knowledge of languages and cultures. According to one count, he spoke 29 European, Asian, and African languages. His best-known achievements include traveling in disguise to Mecca, making an unexpurgated translation of The Book of One Thousand and One Nights (the collection is more commonly called The Arabian Nights in English because of Andrew Lang's abridgment) and the Kama Sutra and journeying with John Henning Speke as the first white men guided by the redoubtable Sidi Mubarek Bombay to discover the Great Lakes of Africa in search of the source of the Nile. Allegations of homosexuality followed Burton throughout most of his life, at a time when it was a criminal offense in the United Kingdom. Biographers disagree on whether or not Burton ever experienced Gay sex (he never directly acknowledges it in his writing). These allegations began in his army days when General Sir Charles James Napier requested that Burton go undercover to investigate a male brothel reputed to be frequented by British soldiers. It has been suggested that Burton's detailed report on the workings of the brothel may have led some to believe he had been a customer. Burton was a party boy and a heavy drinker at various times in his life and also admitted to taking both hemp and opium. Friends of the poet Algernon Swinburne blamed Burton for leading him astray, holding Burton responsible for Swinburne's alcoholism and interest in the works of the Marquis de Sade.

Via Daily Dharma: How to Work with People Who Cause Harm

Instead of giving up on those who cause harm, we need to realize that they are seeking happiness but don’t know how to find it.

—Chagdud Tulku Rinpoche, “Putting Down the Arrow”